Office Investment in Columbus
Columbus office is split personality right now. Class A downtown and Polaris stuff still trading at 6.5-7.5% caps with decent occupancy. Everything else? Different story. Remote work hit hard but Intel's bringing some corporate demand back. The key is knowing which buildings have real tenants vs. which ones are propped up by sublease activity that won't stick.
Market Context
Cap Rate Range
7.0-9.5% depending on class and tenant quality, with trophy assets at 6.5-7.5%
Current Vacancy
18-22% market-wide, but 12-15% for Class A in prime locations
Rent Trend
Down 8-12% from 2021 peaks, stabilizing in Class A buildings
Absorption
Negative 400k SF in 2025, first positive quarter expected Q2 2026
Price Per Unit Trend
Price per SF down 15-20% from peak, Class A holding better
Transaction Volume
$180M in 2025, up from $125M in 2024 but still 60% below 2019
Submarket Analysis
Downtown
7.5-8.5% capVacancy
15-18%
Avg Rent (1BR)
$22-28/SF NNN
Stabilizing with state government and financial services holding
OM Tip
Highlight parking ratios and recent capital improvements - buyers care about deferred maintenance
Polaris
6.5-7.5% capVacancy
12-16%
Avg Rent (1BR)
Strongest fundamentals, corporate headquarters concentration
OM Tip
WALT is everything here - show lease terms and tenant credit quality
Dublin/Northwest
7.0-8.0% capVacancy
14-19%
Avg Rent (1BR)
Benefiting from Intel spillover demand and established corporate presence
OM Tip
Proximity to Intel site becoming selling point for newer corporate tenants
Easton/Northeast
7.5-8.5% capVacancy
16-20%
Avg Rent (1BR)
Mixed, depends heavily on individual building quality and tenant mix
OM Tip
Show floor plate efficiency - open floor plans performing better
Suburban South
8.5-9.5% capVacancy
20-25%
Avg Rent (1BR)
Struggling, value-add only unless single tenant with long-term lease
OM Tip
Be realistic about TI requirements and rollover risk
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What Your OM Needs to Address
Remote work impact analysis
Show actual utilization data if available, not just lease square footage
Data to Include
Badge swipe data, tenant downsizing history, sublease competition within 2 miles
Weighted Average Lease Term detail
Break down by tenant size and credit quality, not just overall WALT
Data to Include
Lease expiration schedule, renewal probability by tenant, market rent vs. in-place rent
Capital expenditure schedule
Buyers are paranoid about deferred maintenance and TI obligations
Data to Include
Recent cap ex, upcoming system replacements, typical TI costs per SF by tenant type
Parking ratio and revenue
Downtown parking generates real income, suburban is table stakes
Data to Include
Parking revenue per space, monthly vs. daily rates, contract vs. transient split
Sublease competition analysis
Map every sublease space within 1 mile and their asking rents
Data to Include
Sublease inventory, average time on market, discount to direct space
Intel semiconductor ecosystem positioning
Even if not directly related, show awareness of supply chain opportunities
Data to Include
Proximity to Intel site, tenant connections to semiconductor industry, infrastructure improvements
Investment Outlook
Short Term
Choppy through 2026 but worst is behind us. Focus on buildings with strong tenant credit and minimal rollover risk. Class A stuff in Polaris and downtown will find buyers at 6.5-7.5% caps.
Medium Term
Intel impact starts showing 2027-2028. Corporate relocations and expansions will favor newer buildings in Dublin/Polaris corridor. Suburban Class B becomes more viable as companies need cheaper space for hybrid workers.
Long Term
Columbus benefits from Midwest growth story and semiconductor ecosystem. Office demand won't return to 2019 levels but stabilizes at lower occupancy with higher rents for quality space. Flight to quality continues.
Buyer Profile
Value-add funds circling distressed suburban assets. Core buyers want trophy properties with long-term credit tenants. REITs mostly absent except for single-tenant sale-leaseback opportunities.
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