Senior Living Investment in Columbus
Columbus senior living has stabilized after three rough years. Staffing shortages hit bottom in 2023. Occupancy's recovering, but it's uneven across care levels. Independent living bounced back fastest - those residents have options and they're using them. Memory care remains tight inventory, and that's not changing soon. Construction stopped cold in 2024. Nobody's breaking ground on spec senior housing right now. That supply constraint helps existing operators, but it's creating a bidding war for quality assets.
Market Context
Cap Rate Range
6.5% to 8.5% depending on care mix and vintage. Independent living trades at 6.5%-7.2%. Full-service communities with memory care push 7.5%-8.5%.
Current Vacancy
12% metro-wide, down from 18% peak in 2023. Independent living sits at 8% vacancy. Assisted living higher at 15%. Memory care actually overoccupied in some submarkets.
Rent Trend
Up 4.2% year-over-year across all care levels. Independent living led gains at 5.1%. Assisted living lagging at 3.8% due to competition.
Absorption
180 units absorbed in Q4 2025, strongest quarter since 2021. Memory care absorbed 65 units. Independent living took 85 units.
Price Per Unit Trend
Independent living averaging $185K per unit, up 8% from 2024. Assisted living $165K per unit. Memory care commands $220K per unit when it trades.
Transaction Volume
$145M in 2025, up from $89M in 2024. Five deals over $10M. Mostly portfolio sales and owner-operator transitions.
Submarket Analysis
Dublin/Powell
6.4%-6.8% capVacancy
6%
Avg Rent (1BR)
$3,200 independent living
Strongest submarket. High-income seniors, proximity to healthcare. Limited new supply.
OM Tip
Highlight healthcare partnerships and transportation services. Income demographics tell the story here.
Upper Arlington/Grandview
6.6%-7.1% capVacancy
9%
Avg Rent (1BR)
$2,950 independent living
Stable but competitive. Three communities within two miles of each other.
OM Tip
Differentiation matters. Show your competitive advantages clearly - amenities, care philosophy, staff retention.
Westerville/Worthington
7.0%-7.5% capVacancy
11%
Avg Rent (1BR)
$2,750 independent living
Middle-market sweet spot. Good demand fundamentals but more price-sensitive residents.
OM Tip
Value proposition needs to be clear. Show cost per care hour comparisons to competition.
East Side/Pickerington
7.2%-8.1% capVacancy
14%
Avg Rent (1BR)
$2,450 independent living
Recovery lagging. Some operators struggling with payor mix transitions.
OM Tip
Medicaid mix is the elephant in the room. Show your waiting list management and private-pay conversion rates.
Hilliard/West Side
7.1%-7.6% capVacancy
13%
Avg Rent (1BR)
$2,650 independent living
Emerging area. Younger senior population but growing fast with Intel development nearby.
OM Tip
Demographics story is future-focused here. Show population projections and income growth trends.
Performance by Vintage
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What Your OM Needs to Address
Care Level Performance Breakdown
Don't blend occupancy and revenue across care levels. Buyers want to see independent living, assisted living, and memory care performance separately.
Data to Include
Three-year occupancy trends by care level, average length of stay, move-out reasons, and internal transfers between care levels.
Staffing Cost Analysis
Wage inflation hit 12% in 2023-2024. Show how you've managed through it and where costs are stabilizing.
Data to Include
Staff turnover rates by position, current wages vs market, overtime trends, agency staff usage, and retention initiatives.
Payor Mix and Rate History
Private pay vs Medicaid mix drives valuation. Ohio Medicaid reimbursement is decent but buyers want to see the trajectory.
Data to Include
Five-year payor mix trends, private pay rate increases by year, Medicaid bed allocation, and waiting list composition.
Regulatory and Licensing Status
Ohio's survey process got stricter post-COVID. Clean surveys matter more now than they used to.
Data to Include
Last three survey results, any deficiencies and corrections, staff certification levels, and ongoing compliance costs.
Capital Expenditure Planning
Deferred maintenance is obvious to buyers. Better to address it upfront than get beaten up in due diligence.
Data to Include
Property condition assessment, major system replacement schedules, recent capital improvements, and 5-year capital plan.
Market Position and Competition
Columbus has pockets of oversupply and undersupply. Show you understand your competitive position within your specific trade area.
Data to Include
3-mile radius competitor analysis, rate comparison, occupancy benchmarking, and resident acquisition costs vs competition.
Investment Outlook
Short Term
Stabilization continues through 2026. Occupancy gains should accelerate as new supply remains limited. Staffing costs are flattening but won't decrease. Margin improvement comes from revenue side.
Medium Term
2027-2029 looks strong. Baby boomer demand wave starts hitting independent living in earnest. Supply-demand imbalance favors existing operators. Cap rate compression likely for well-positioned assets.
Long Term
Construction will return by 2030, but it'll be more disciplined. Focus on higher-acuity care and premium independent living. Land costs and construction inflation mean new development needs higher rents than most markets will support.
Buyer Profile
Regional operators looking to enter Columbus or expand their footprint. Private equity groups targeting stable cash flow with moderate growth. REITs selectively acquiring premium independent living communities. Owner-operators ready to retire finding ready buyers.
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