Land Investment in Dallas-Fort Worth
DFW's land market keeps hitting new records. Development sites that went for $75K per acre in 2020 are trading at $150K+ today. It's not just speculation — the fundamentals back it up. Corporate relocations from California and the Northeast aren't slowing down. Toyota, Charles Schwab, and State Farm already made their moves. More are coming. Raw land inside the I-635 loop? Forget about it unless you've got $300K+ per acre. The real action is happening in the outer rings where you can still find entitled parcels under $100K per acre. But you better move fast.
Market Context
Cap Rate Range
N/A - raw land doesn't generate income, priced on development potential and comparables
Current Vacancy
N/A - raw land metric
Rent Trend
N/A - development potential drives pricing, not rental income
Absorption
24-36 months typical hold for entitled parcels, 3-5 years for raw land through entitlement process
Price Per Unit Trend
$85K-$180K per acre depending on location and entitlement status, up 22% year-over-year
Transaction Volume
$2.8B in land transactions over $1M in 2025, down 15% from peak but still well above historical averages
Submarket Analysis
Plano/Frisco
N/A capVacancy
2.1% entitled parcels available
Avg Rent (1BR)
$180K-$250K per acre
Premium pricing justified by corporate density. Legacy West impact still rippling out.
OM Tip
Emphasize proximity to corporate campuses and existing infrastructure. Include traffic counts on Preston Road corridor.
Alliance/North Fort Worth
N/A capVacancy
8.3% entitled industrial sites
Avg Rent (1BR)
$95K-$140K per acre
Industrial and logistics demand driving everything. Amazon, FedEx already committed long-term.
OM Tip
Highlight Alliance Airport access and existing rail infrastructure. Include cargo volume projections.
Prosper/Celina
N/A capVacancy
12.5% entitled residential
Avg Rent (1BR)
$75K-$120K per acre
Growth path for residential. Schools driving family migration north from Dallas.
OM Tip
Document school district ratings and planned elementary sites. Include demographic growth projections.
Arlington/Grand Prairie
N/A capVacancy
6.8% mixed-use entitled
Avg Rent (1BR)
$110K-$165K per acre
Sports and entertainment district spillover. Mixed-use projects getting traction.
OM Tip
Reference Cowboys and Rangers proximity. Include entertainment district master plans.
McKinney/Allen
N/A capVacancy
4.2% entitled parcels
Avg Rent (1BR)
$125K-$190K per acre
Mature suburban growth. Less upside but lower execution risk.
OM Tip
Stress established infrastructure and proven absorption rates. Include comparable sales within 2 miles.
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What Your OM Needs to Address
Entitlement Status and Timeline
Most buyers want entitled parcels ready for construction. If you're selling raw land, include realistic timeline and cost estimates for entitlement process.
Data to Include
Current zoning, required approvals, estimated entitlement costs ($15K-$45K per acre typical), and timeline (18-36 months). Include contact info for local planning departments.
Environmental Phase I and II Status
Environmental issues kill more land deals than pricing. Get ahead of it with recent reports and clear remediation status.
Data to Include
Phase I report within 180 days. If Phase II required, include remediation costs and timeline. Document any known contamination and cleanup status.
Utility Capacity and Infrastructure
Developers need to know infrastructure costs upfront. Water, sewer, and electric capacity letters are table stakes for serious buyers.
Data to Include
Utility capacity letters from all providers. Include costs for extensions or upgrades. Document fiber availability for commercial projects.
Traffic Impact and Access
TxDOT requirements can add significant time and cost. Include traffic studies and required road improvements in your analysis.
Data to Include
Recent traffic study, required TxDOT approvals, estimated impact fees, and timeline for road improvements. Include maps showing access points.
Flood Plain and Drainage
Texas flood requirements got stricter after Hurricane Harvey. FEMA flood maps and drainage plans are now standard due diligence items.
Data to Include
Current FEMA flood maps, required detention calculations, and drainage infrastructure costs. Include any Army Corps of Engineers permits required.
Comparable Sales and Market Analysis
Land comps are tricky because every site is different. Include detailed analysis of recent sales with similar characteristics.
Data to Include
Comparable sales within 3 miles and 12 months. Adjust for differences in size, entitlement status, and development potential. Include price per buildable square foot calculations.
Investment Outlook
Short Term
Next 12-18 months look strong despite higher interest rates. Corporate relocations continue driving demand. Entitled parcels under $150K per acre will get multiple offers. Raw land deals taking longer to close as buyers get pickier about entitlement risk. Construction loan rates at 8%+ are slowing some developers but not stopping them.
Medium Term
2027-2028 depends on broader economic conditions but DFW fundamentals remain solid. Population growth projections show 1.2 million new residents by 2030. That translates to continued demand for both residential and commercial development. Expect more scrutiny on environmental issues and longer entitlement timelines as regulations tighten.
Long Term
DFW's growth story has at least another decade of runway. Climate migration from other states, corporate tax advantages, and business-friendly regulations aren't changing. The risk is infrastructure keeping up with growth. Transportation and water supply investments will determine which submarkets outperform. Focus on areas with planned infrastructure improvements.
Buyer Profile
Mix of local and national developers. Local guys know the market better but nationals have more capital. REITs are active in large entitled parcels over 50 acres. Family offices and high-net-worth individuals prefer smaller sites under 20 acres. International buyers mostly staying away due to entitlement complexity.
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