Senior Living Investment in San Diego
San Diego's senior living market is seeing serious momentum. Baby boomers with real wealth are aging into assisted living, and construction's been minimal for three years running. Cap rates compressed 40-50 basis points since 2024, but fundamentals are getting stronger. Your biggest challenge isn't finding buyers - it's explaining why your staffing costs jumped 18% in two years and what you're doing about it. Buyers want clean payor mix data and realistic occupancy projections by care level. Don't try to hide the Medicaid exposure or blend your memory care numbers with independent living.
Market Context
Cap Rate Range
5.2% to 6.8% depending on care mix and vintage. Independent living pushing sub-6% in prime locations.
Current Vacancy
12-15% average, but varies wildly by care level. Memory care running 8-10%, assisted living 15-18%.
Rent Trend
Private pay rates up 4-6% annually. Medicaid reimbursement flat to down 2%.
Absorption
6-9 months for stabilized properties. New developments taking 18-24 months.
Price Per Unit Trend
Independent living units $180K-$280K. Assisted living $220K-$350K depending on care ratios.
Transaction Volume
Down 25% from 2023 peak, but quality deals moving fast. $380M in trades through Q1 2026.
Submarket Analysis
La Jolla/UTC
5.2-5.8% capVacancy
8-12%
Avg Rent (1BR)
$4,200-$5,800 independent living
Strongest submarket. Biotech wealth driving premium positioning.
OM Tip
Highlight proximity to UCSD medical and average resident net worth if you have it.
Rancho Bernardo/Poway
5.8-6.4% capVacancy
10-15%
Avg Rent (1BR)
$3,800-$4,900 independent living
Solid middle market. Good owner-operator demand.
OM Tip
Show move-in patterns from surrounding single-family neighborhoods.
Mission Valley/Hillcrest
6.0-6.6% capVacancy
12-18%
Avg Rent (1BR)
$3,500-$4,700 independent living
Urban seniors market growing. Transit access matters.
OM Tip
Break out urban vs suburban resident preferences and care progression.
Carlsbad/Encinitas
5.6-6.2% capVacancy
9-14%
Avg Rent (1BR)
$4,000-$5,200 independent living
Coastal premium intact. Limited new supply expected.
OM Tip
Waiting list data is gold here. Show demand depth.
East County
6.2-6.8% capVacancy
15-22%
Avg Rent (1BR)
$2,900-$3,800 independent living
Value play market. Higher Medicaid exposure typical.
OM Tip
Be transparent about payor mix and show path to private pay improvement.
Performance by Vintage
0
P
1
r
2
e
3
-
4
2
5
0
6
0
7
0
8
9
p
10
r
11
o
12
p
13
e
14
r
15
t
16
i
17
e
18
s
19
20
n
21
e
22
e
23
d
24
25
m
26
a
27
j
28
o
29
r
30
31
C
32
a
33
p
34
E
35
x
36
37
b
38
u
39
t
40
41
c
42
a
43
n
44
45
w
46
o
47
r
48
k
49
50
a
51
t
52
53
t
54
h
55
e
56
57
r
58
i
59
g
60
h
61
t
62
63
b
64
a
65
s
66
i
67
s
68
.
69
70
2
71
0
72
0
73
0
74
-
75
2
76
0
77
1
78
0
79
80
v
81
i
82
n
83
t
84
a
85
g
86
e
87
88
i
89
s
90
91
t
92
h
93
e
94
95
s
96
w
97
e
98
e
99
t
100
101
s
102
p
103
o
104
t
105
106
-
107
108
g
109
o
110
o
111
d
112
113
b
114
o
115
n
116
e
117
s
118
,
119
120
m
121
a
122
n
123
a
124
g
125
e
126
a
127
b
128
l
129
e
130
131
u
132
p
133
d
134
a
135
t
136
e
137
s
138
.
139
140
2
141
0
142
1
143
0
144
-
145
2
146
0
147
2
148
0
149
150
b
151
u
152
i
153
l
154
d
155
s
156
157
c
158
o
159
m
160
m
161
a
162
n
163
d
164
165
p
166
r
167
e
168
m
169
i
170
u
171
m
172
s
173
174
b
175
u
176
t
177
178
w
179
a
180
t
181
c
182
h
183
184
f
185
o
186
r
187
188
o
189
v
190
e
191
r
192
-
193
s
194
p
195
e
196
c
197
i
198
f
199
i
200
c
201
a
202
t
203
i
204
o
205
n
206
.
207
208
P
209
o
210
s
211
t
212
-
213
2
214
0
215
2
216
0
217
218
d
219
e
220
v
221
e
222
l
223
o
224
p
225
m
226
e
227
n
228
t
229
s
230
231
a
232
r
233
e
234
235
r
236
a
237
r
238
e
239
240
b
241
u
242
t
243
244
t
245
y
246
p
247
i
248
c
249
a
250
l
251
l
252
y
253
254
s
255
p
256
e
257
c
258
'
259
d
260
261
f
262
o
263
r
264
265
h
266
i
267
g
268
h
269
e
270
r
271
272
a
273
c
274
u
275
i
276
t
277
y
278
.
What Your OM Needs to Address
Care Level Performance
Don't blend independent living with assisted living metrics. Buyers want separate P&Ls.
Data to Include
Revenue per occupied unit by care level, transition rates between levels, current acuity scoring
Staffing Analysis
Labor costs hit 55-65% of revenue. Show your staffing model isn't broken.
Data to Include
Staffing ratios by department, wage trends last 24 months, turnover rates, agency vs direct hire mix
Payor Mix Reality
California's Medicaid rates are brutal. Private pay percentage drives value.
Data to Include
Current payor mix, Medicaid pending applications, average length of stay by payor type
Regulatory Status
DSS citations can kill deals. Full disclosure prevents blowups during due diligence.
Data to Include
Last three years of state inspections, any pending investigations, license renewal dates
Market Positioning
Show where you sit in the competitive set. Buyers want to see pricing power.
Data to Include
Rate comparison to competitors within 5 miles, occupancy vs market average, resident demographics
Capital Needs
Deferred maintenance is expensive in senior housing. Be upfront about upcoming CapEx.
Data to Include
Property condition assessment, major system replacement schedule, life safety compliance status
Investment Outlook
Short Term
Next 12-18 months look strong. Occupancy recovery continuing, rate growth steady, construction pipeline minimal. Watch for more distressed assets from overleveraged operators.
Medium Term
2027-2029 should see solid fundamentals. Boomer demographic wave really hits, but labor costs will stay elevated. Expect more consolidation among smaller operators.
Long Term
Structural demand story is real, but the business is getting more complex. Higher acuity residents, stricter regulations, technology integration requirements. Well-capitalized operators will do fine.
Buyer Profile
REITs looking for scale acquisitions, family offices with healthcare experience, private equity groups building platforms. Owner-operators struggling with single assets.
Marketing a senior living property in San Diego?
DealDraft generates professional offering memorandums with market-specific data and property-type expertise built in.
Create Your OM