Retail Investment in Tampa
Tampa retail's holding steady while other markets get hammered by e-commerce fears. Grocery-anchored centers trade at 5.5% to 6.2% caps. Strip malls without food anchor sit closer to 7%. The play here is location and tenant mix - Publix or Winn-Dixie anchored properties in Westchase or South Tampa move fast. Freestanding boxes on busy corridors work if you've got drive-thru tenants paying $25+ NNN.
Market Context
Cap Rate Range
5.5% to 7.8% depending on anchor tenancy and location. Grocery-anchored centers compress to sub-6% caps in prime submarkets.
Current Vacancy
8.2% overall, but varies wildly by submarket. South Tampa grocery-anchored under 4%, while East Tampa strip centers push 15%.
Rent Trend
Flat to up 2% annually for quality space. Drive-thru pad sites seeing 5-8% bumps. Medical and service tenants paying premiums.
Absorption
Positive 180,000 SF annually, driven by restaurant and personal service demand. Big box absorption still negative.
Price Per Unit Trend
$185 to $320 per square foot for stabilized assets. Premium for Publix-anchored centers in A-grade demographics.
Transaction Volume
$340M in 2025, up 15% from prior year. Institutional buyers active on grocery-anchored assets over $10M.
Submarket Analysis
South Tampa/Hyde Park
5.5% to 6.0% capVacancy
3.8%
Avg Rent (1BR)
$28-35 NNN for inline space
Tight supply, wealthy demographics, limited development sites
OM Tip
Include household income and education stats - buyers pay up for demographics here
Westchase/Town 'N Country
5.8% to 6.5% capVacancy
6.2%
Avg Rent (1BR)
$22-28 NNN
Family-oriented, Publix performs well, new residential feeding demand
OM Tip
Show population growth trends and new subdivision development nearby
Brandon/Riverview
6.2% to 7.0% capVacancy
7.5%
Avg Rent (1BR)
$19-25 NNN
Growth market but more price-sensitive demographics
OM Tip
Emphasize traffic counts on major arterials like SR-60 and Bloomingdale
Carrollwood/Northdale
6.0% to 6.8% capVacancy
5.1%
Avg Rent (1BR)
$24-30 NNN
Mature market, stable but limited upside
OM Tip
Focus on tenant longevity and renewal probability - buyers want stability here
East Tampa/Temple Terrace
7.2% to 8.5% capVacancy
12.8%
Avg Rent (1BR)
$15-22 NNN
Value-add play, gentrification potential near USF
OM Tip
Show any planned public improvements or university expansion plans
Performance by Vintage
0
P
1
r
2
e
3
-
4
1
5
9
6
9
7
0
8
9
c
10
e
11
n
12
t
13
e
14
r
15
s
16
17
n
18
e
19
e
20
d
21
22
p
23
a
24
r
25
k
26
i
27
n
28
g
29
30
l
31
o
32
t
33
34
a
35
n
36
d
37
38
f
39
a
40
c
41
a
42
d
43
e
44
45
w
46
o
47
r
48
k
49
50
b
51
u
52
t
53
54
o
55
f
56
t
57
e
58
n
59
60
h
61
a
62
v
63
e
64
65
b
66
e
67
l
68
o
69
w
70
-
71
m
72
a
73
r
74
k
75
e
76
t
77
78
a
79
n
80
c
81
h
82
o
83
r
84
85
r
86
e
87
n
88
t
89
s
90
91
t
92
h
93
a
94
t
95
96
r
97
e
98
s
99
e
100
t
101
102
h
103
i
104
g
105
h
106
e
107
r
108
.
109
110
1
111
9
112
9
113
0
114
s
115
116
c
117
o
118
n
119
s
120
t
121
r
122
u
123
c
124
t
125
i
126
o
127
n
128
129
h
130
o
131
l
132
d
133
s
134
135
u
136
p
137
138
w
139
e
140
l
141
l
142
,
143
144
g
145
o
146
o
147
d
148
149
b
150
o
151
n
152
e
153
s
154
155
f
156
o
157
r
158
159
r
160
e
161
n
162
o
163
v
164
a
165
t
166
i
167
o
168
n
169
.
170
171
2
172
0
173
0
174
0
175
s
176
177
v
178
i
179
n
180
t
181
a
182
g
183
e
184
185
o
186
v
187
e
188
r
189
d
190
e
191
v
192
e
193
l
194
o
195
p
196
e
197
d
198
199
i
200
n
201
202
s
203
o
204
m
205
e
206
207
a
208
r
209
e
210
a
211
s
212
213
b
214
u
215
t
216
217
q
218
u
219
a
220
l
221
i
222
t
223
y
224
225
c
226
o
227
n
228
s
229
t
230
r
231
u
232
c
233
t
234
i
235
o
236
n
237
.
238
239
P
240
o
241
s
242
t
243
-
244
2
245
0
246
1
247
0
248
249
l
250
i
251
m
252
i
253
t
254
e
255
d
256
257
n
258
e
259
w
260
261
s
262
u
263
p
264
p
265
l
266
y
267
,
268
269
m
270
o
271
s
272
t
273
l
274
y
275
276
r
277
e
278
d
279
e
280
v
281
e
282
l
283
o
284
p
285
m
286
e
287
n
288
t
289
290
o
291
r
292
293
p
294
a
295
d
296
297
s
298
i
299
t
300
e
301
s
302
.
What Your OM Needs to Address
Co-tenancy clauses detail
Most anchor leases have kick-out rights if occupancy drops below 70-75%. Some have opening co-tenancy requirements.
Data to Include
Full co-tenancy matrix, which tenants have kick-outs, what triggers them, historical occupancy trends
Anchor rent analysis
Many Publix and Winn-Dixie leases signed pre-2015 are 15-20% below market. Show upside at renewal.
Data to Include
Current anchor rents vs. market, renewal dates, rent bumps, option terms
Percentage rent potential
Restaurant tenants often pay percentage rent above breakpoints. Can add 5-10% to effective rent.
Data to Include
Tenant sales figures if available, percentage rent collected last 3 years, breakpoint analysis
CAM reconciliation transparency
Show actual CAM costs vs. estimates. Tampa properties average $4-6 PSF in recoverable expenses.
Data to Include
3-year CAM history, major upcoming capital items, management fee structure
Traffic count validation
FDOT counts can be 2-3 years old. Get recent counts on major arterials - makes a difference in value.
Data to Include
Current traffic counts, peak hour analysis, any planned road improvements
Insurance cost reality
Florida property insurance up 40% since 2022. Wind/flood coverage expensive near coast.
Data to Include
Current insurance costs, flood zone designation, recent claims history, carrier stability
Investment Outlook
Short Term
Grocery-anchored centers stay strong through 2026-2027. Interest rates stabilizing helps transaction volume. Watch for distress in non-anchored strip centers as debt matures.
Medium Term
Tampa population growth supports retail demand through 2030. Winners are experiential retail, services, and food. Losers are soft goods and electronics. Redevelopment opportunities increase.
Long Term
Infill locations with good demographics hold value. Suburban strip malls face conversion pressure to mixed-use. Climate risk becomes bigger factor in insurance costs and buyer appetite.
Buyer Profile
Local families and regional investors dominate under $5M. Institutional buyers want grocery-anchored centers over $10M in A-grade demographics. REITs selective but active on perfect assets.
Marketing a retail property in Tampa?
DealDraft generates professional offering memorandums with market-specific data and property-type expertise built in.
Create Your OM